In the economic war that took place between China and the Western countries, especially the United States, a set of basic facts were found to us. Trade and investments with China are large, and they are going in two directions, most of which are in favor of the Chinese balance, and that any restrictions imposed in the form of sanctions on China will have a greater cost onWestern economies.
The second thing is that China has very large American, European and Japanese investments, and that it has sufficient electronic platforms to conduct its international monetary transactions.If it is deprived of the services of the "Swift" international financial transfers, it is able to compensate for this.
Therefore, the economic war with China has led to a decline in the ability to produce "microcrosions", which has been the most important industries, especially cars, phones, computers, and other smart means.Likewise, global shipping costs, and other matters.
Therefore, China was able to reduce the size of the harm that it will be caused by that war.Economic indicators indicate that China has benefited in its trade balance, its production, and even its growth rates, despite the tight restrictions imposed on the Chinese people's movement in large cities, especially because of Corona.
But Russia, in comparison, cannot do this, it depends a lot in its economy and its governmental income on its relations with the West, and Europe in particular, as oil and gas export to Europe.And if these countries find ways to reduce their import, this will have clear consequences for Russia's income from its fossil exports, and the government's budget, which depends in 40% to 50% of its income on the revenues from crude oil and natural gas.
Likewise, the boycott of dealing with Russian banks, freezing the funds of the Russian Central Bank in Western banks, preventing Russia from benefiting from the "Swift" system, and depriving its flight from using the surrounding atmosphere, will also involve negative effects that immediately manifests negative repercussions on the Russian ruble price (decreasedQuickly by a rate of 70% about the dollar, which has become equal to 100 rubles), and in the decline in the stock market markets that the Russian authorities disrupted their activities.
The question remains: Has all these matters absent from the mind of the Russian strategic plan when it provoked to the point of sending forces to occupy Ukraine and work to change the ruling leadership in it.The Russian invasion decision, which took a semi -neutral stance, surprised its refusal to vote in the Security Council, and to issue statements that support the Russian position on economic boycott decisions, but it calls, at the same time, to end the crisis in Ukraine by peaceful means.
The question is: What if Russia continues its stubbornness, and it continued to keep its military presence in Ukraine, and insisted on the independence of the two separate regions in eastern Ukraine, what will the West do?To what degree can the boycott and economic blockade against Russia interact, so that Russian President Vladimir Putin is forced to reconsider his strategic movement?
The invasion, the Russian and Western parties, fell between the plateful jaws, so Russia is not a survivor of the consequences if it abdicated the other party, nor is it a victory if each of the parties continues to insist on its position, because this will produce new and complex new dynamics.
The first is that the goal of Western countries aims to include Russia to be part of the Western alliance against China may fail, and Russia and China are supporting together, which is a cost to everyone, starting with Russia, China, the United States and its allies.
Secondly, this situation will enter the world in a dark economic tunnel that will start with high prices, the possibility of the collapse of the global monetary system, and the occurrence of chaos in the markets, money and basic commodities.
The problem will not stop at the stagflation, but rather an economic collapse, in which we see the queues of the hungry, the unemployed and the criminals roam the streets.This will end with a devastating nuclear war for most of the world.
This terrible scenario can happen, but the quarreines may be satisfied with local wars and benchmarks in different places.Some of them may be useful, while others are of great harm, as the Ukrainian war may push the West to reach a nuclear agreement in Vienna with Iran, and through which they seek to disagree with the possibility of Pakistan with Iran with Afghanistan, which would not have been a threat to Western interests in Central Asia, and inCountries began to witness unrest, such as what happened in Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan?
There is also the possibility of pressure on Turkey to close, even for a temporary period, the Dardanelle and Bosphorus Straits, in the face of international navigation, which will make the difficulty of Russian wars and commercial ships crossing from the Black Sea to warm waters in the Mediterranean.And then the question arises: Can a fight against Syria between the West and Russia can take place?
But the most important thing in the short term is that the Arab countries will benefit from the high prices of crude oil and natural gas.
On the other hand, you will find that its commercial and service balance (the basic balance) will suffer from the high cost of food (wheat, rice, sugar, corn, soy, feed, etc.), and from the high prices of raw materials, especially required for construction, such as iron, aluminum, and wood, Silver, and zinc.Likewise, tourist returns, as well as the cost of transportation, shipping and insurance, are expected to rise in risk and costs.
Jordan is the Arab -exporting Arab country that may be subjected to the dumping of the markets with this material from Belarus, which has a large abundance of it in the form of mines or quarries.This previously happened in the years 2012-2015, and caused Jordan with clear losses in this important export article.
If the Ukraine crisis is prolonged, the door is open to many scenarios, which may vary in the size of its negative impact on the global economy as a whole, and national economies are individual.But it is difficult to predict what is going on, because the main players do not know what their reactions and actions will be in the field, medium and long, in the midst of this complex war.
