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How does CIA draw its information about Russia's preparations for the war in Ukraine?

Military satellites or spies on the ground are the basic and only means of collecting information about armies preparations for war as it was in the past, as technology plays a vital role in collecting and analyzing information and at the same moment of its occurrence, which the United States relies on when it talks about the preparations of the forcesRussian is on the border with Ukraine, so what are the most prominent means of technology used in such cases?Has mobile phones and social media become part of it?

Monitor each move

Just eight years after the Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine and the invasion of the Crimea, the Russian forces returned again to mobilization along the Ukrainian border, and the United States has been watching over months not only many forces that are accumulated on the border, but also where to station and what Russia is doing With its equipment, such as tanks that will be central in any land invasion, where US officials indicate that one of the evidences that the Russian army is preparing to invade, is when they move the tanks on the border, and how they occupy them, and if they operate them and stop them constantly, this means that the tanks will be ready to start quickly, American intelligence also monitored other information about hospitals and Russian emergency centers near the Ukrainian border, as well as pushing quantities of blood to advanced areas of the border, as well as monitoring weather in Ukraine, cooler temperatures and frozen terrain at the present time, which makes the Russian incursion easier to tank movement Heavy equipment.

During the past few hours, the Russian forces have taken other concerned steps, by moving to the attack sites, according to US officials, to CBS, Russia has transferred missile launchers and long -range artillery cuts to the shooting sites after they were gathering and lining up in specific places, asThe Russians added more logistical support to their forces, in addition to additional offensive and defensive weapons, which strengthens Washington's expectations that Moscow will attack Ukraine within days, but how did the United States get all this information?

The virtue of technology

While the United States and other governments in the NATO "NATO" are monitoring the activities of Russia and on the basis of this, its appropriate political reactions and political responses are determined, the immediate intelligence information that they depend on no longer comes from the satellites of artificial espionage, which is worth millions of dollars or from spies on the ground It is also from social media, huge data, smartphones and low -cost commercial satellites, all of which have occupied the center of the forefront in collecting and analyzing information at the time of their occurrence, and it has become a "Twitter" tweets and their analysis is important as anything else in the intelligence information analysis set, as These technologies also allowed news institutions to follow up on what is going on on the ground and contribute to the analysis of events.

During the past three days, videos taken by the general public showed and published on social media platforms, especially the "Tech Talk" and "Instagram" sites, trains carrying tanks and other military equipment, which was used by specialized analysts to know the quality of these weapons and where Russia transmits them, for example The "Roshan" consulting group, which specializes in analyzing the forces of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, has used many of these images to analyze military moves and to know Russian secret plans, and Conrad Mosica, the group's director of the American "NBC" network, expressed his belief that the Russians continue to support their military capabilities to implement A strategic process against Ukraine.

Sources available to everyone

At the time of the US government, the clock continues to carry out sensitive operations to collect intelligence information with a huge budget from the intelligence community, which in 2021 exceeded $ 84 billion, huge amounts of valuable information have become available to the general public, which is not all collected by government agencies , Technological development and low satellite prices and small "Dron" aircraft allowed during the last decade, for companies to operate commercial satellites and "Dron" aircraft that collect photos, videos and information, and almost every person has a smart phone with advanced photos and video.

Through the information obtained by commercial companies and individuals, anyone can access the facts of Russia's military positions by searching on the Internet, and commercial photography companies publish very modern and geographically modern pictures of the Russian military forces, and many news agencies monitor the situation through, Its reports are submitted regularly based on these images and data after their scrutiny and verification through specialized experts, and investigators and private security companies follow the flow of this open source information continuously, which is a great blessing for the intelligence services, as government specialists work to evaluate the information obtained From the Internet instead of only relying on secret systems or expensive sensors in the air or in space.

كيف تستقي

Important models

Some Internet users, some of whom do not disclose their identity, provide free tools and information available, such as determining the geographical location of the military caravans, tracking the path of warplanes at the time of its movement over the Black Sea or identifying the models of armored vehicles, and among these are the most famous users these days, "Ellen News" on Twitter, which is followed by 113,000 people who are constantly increasing, and through this account can be found on the satellite satellite images of Russian camps, equipment transferred on railways, pictures of helicopter aircraft, as well as other information and maps of Iran's armed groups as well .

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Another user on the Internet shares the results he finds within an account called "Coopshore" on "Twitter", which is followed by more than 34,000 people, and was one of the first accounts to reveal the activity and movements of the Russian forces at the "Clintsi" base in the "Brensk Oblast" area,Less than 50 kilometers from Ukraine during the month of December, which helped its organizers finally produce a video for the French newspaper "Le Monde" about the mobilization of Russian forces on the border with Ukraine.

Open source intelligence

ووفقاً لوكالة الاستخبارات المركزية الأميركية "سي آي أي"، فإن Open source intelligence هي معلومات استخباراتية مستمدة من المواد المتاحة للجمهور العام والتي يتم جمعها من الإنترنت ووسائل الإعلام والمجلات المتخصصة والبحوث والصور والمعلومات الجغرافية المكانية بهدف إنتاج معلومات استخباراتية يمكن توظيفها والاستفادة منها، ويشمل ذلك جمع وتقييم وتحليل المعلومات التي تتناولها تقارير إخبارية ومنشورات على وسائل التواصل الاجتماعي ومقاطع فيديو على "يوتيوب" وصور الأقمار الاصطناعية التجارية.

وتُستقى هذه المعلومات من مصادر غير سرية، ويمكن الوصول إليها من دون مهارات أو أدوات متخصصة، على الرغم من أنها يمكن أن تشمل المصادر المتاحة فقط للمشتركين، ولا تتطلب Open source intelligence، اختراق الأنظمة أو استخدام بيانات الدخول الخاصة للوصول إلى البيانات.

وتعد Open source intelligence منخفضة المخاطر ورخيصة وفعالة للغاية في كثير من الأحيان، بحسب ما يقول كاميرون كولكوهون الخبير في شؤون الاستخبارات، الذي أوضح أن Open source intelligence بدأت منذ فترة طويلة، وكانت تركز على الصحف والمجلات ووسائل الإعلام الأخرى المسموعة والمرئية لتتبع الخطط والأنشطة العسكرية والسياسية والاقتصادية للخصوم المحتملين، لكن الاهتمام بها ضعف نسبياً بعد الحرب العالمية الثانية، وركزت وكالات الاستخبارات بشكل أكثر قوة على التجسس باستخدام البشر والوسائل الإلكترونية الأخرى، ولكن مع ظهور الإنترنت ووسائل التواصل الاجتماعي، والأدوات التي يمكنها فحص كميات هائلة من المعلومات، أصبحت Open source intelligence الآن أكثر أهمية من أي وقت مضى.

In recent years, intelligence and government agencies have developed best practices for intelligence information from open sources, analysts have used modern tools to develop their programs and network plans. For example, these programs helped discover criminal organizations by researching the financial records available to the public in search of criminal activitySpecial Investigators also used open source information methods to support law enforcement and companies and government needs.

Automated learning

Although huge amounts of data and information available from the general public, the classification, identification and screening of useful related information is a difficult task, especially when many data can be deliberately manipulated in order to deceive, which complicates the task, but the tools and advanced computer programsThe capable of dealing with millions of information quickly and analyzing it, has contributed to exceeding many difficulties.

وبينما تساهم المعلومات مفتوحة المصدر في زيادة حجم المعلومات التي يتعين على محللي الاستخبارات التعامل معها لفهم التدفق المستمر للبيانات والمعلومات الأولية الغامضة، إلا أن Automated learning، وهو مجموعة من التقنيات التي تسمح لأجهزة الكمبيوتر بتحديد الأنماط في كميات كبيرة من البيانات، أثبت أنه لا يقدر بثمن في معالجة المعلومات مفتوحة المصدر، وبخاصة الصور ومقاطع الفيديو، فقد اتضح أن أجهزة الكمبيوتر أسرع بكثير في غربلة وتصنيف مجموعات البيانات الكبيرة، لذا باتت أدوات وتقنيات Automated learning لتحسين أداء Open source intelligence لا غنى عنها.

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